What is the treaty?

Signed in 1997 and entered into force on 1 April 1999, the treaty set out the basic principles of Ukrainian-Russian relations, defining them as a strategic partnership between the two countries. Both sides committed themselves to respecting the territorial integrity of the other, refraining from using force, not interfering in the other’s internal affairs, as well as ensuring their territory would not be used to the detriment of the security of the other. It also indicated a number of areas in which they intended to develop mutual cooperation. The treaty was valid for 10 years but included an automatic extension for subsequent 10-year periods unless one party withdrew no later than six months before the end of the current period. Since Russia illegally annexed Crimea and attacked Ukraine, it has broken all the most important provisions of the treaty.

Why did Ukraine not terminate the treaty immediately after the Russian aggression?

According to Art. 60 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, Ukraine could have unilaterally terminated or suspended the friendship treaty because Russia was in material breach, but Ukraine’s authorities refused to do so, indicating that maintaining the treaty facilitated the submission of international lawsuits against Russia for its activities in Crimea and Donbas. In the end, though, they decided not to prolong the treaty another time. The reason for the delay was probably fear that termination of the treaty would have been used by the Russian authorities to accuse Ukraine of escalating tensions in bilateral relations. On the other hand, the determination of the Ukrainian authorities to withdraw from the treaty had been gradually increasing ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine, scheduled for March 2019.

What does the decision mean for Ukrainian-Russian relations?

Ukraine’s withdrawal from the treaty will not have serious consequences for bilateral relations, since Russia never fully respected its provisions. Thus, the decision will not worsen Ukraine’s position regarding the possibility of ending the war in Donbas, nor regaining control over Crimea. It will not change the legal status of the Ukraine-Russia border because it was regulated by a separate agreement concluded in 2003. Neither will it remove Russia’s responsibility for the breach of the treaty during its period of validity. It is possible, however, that the Russian authorities will use the situation as a pretext for actions aimed at Ukrainian citizens living or temporarily staying in Russia (e.g., seasonal workers) or Ukrainian enterprises operating there.

What’s next in the legal framework of Ukrainian-Russian cooperation?

After the Russian aggression, the Ukrainian authorities began to review the legal framework of the country’s relations with Russia with the view to possibly terminate agreements that do not correspond to Ukraine’s interest. This process, however, is slow since—according to data from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine—both countries had concluded more than 450 bilateral agreements by 2014 and only about 10% of them had ceased to apply by April 2018. The resignation from the Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership—an agreement that constitutes the basis for bilateral relations—should give Ukraine additional impetus to accelerate the review process. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian authorities should be expected to retain some of the agreements, especially the 2003 border settlement.