It has been three years since Ukraine bravely stood up to Russian aggression, thwarting the Russian leadership’s plans for rebuilding regional hegemony. Ukraine’s success remains grossly underestimated, paradoxically due to its own initial military victories that raised expectations high. Ukraine withstood the Russian assault and then regained control of a large part of its territory from the Russian forces, even though the sheer difference in military potentials favoured the aggressor and most of Ukraine’s foreign partners1 had written it off as a lost cause well before the war broke out. The doom and gloom surrounding the international discussion on ending the war does not do justice to Ukraine’s actual accomplishments and has turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The great majority of the international debate today revolves around the conditions for bringing the war to an end, and very little concerns the conditions for a Ukrainian victory. While these may not be mutually exclusive, the difference is not just theoretical, but has major political significance. Perceptions of victory or defeat influence international alliances, bargaining, and the ability of policymakers to use force effectively. Whether world leaders are willing to spend their political capital on continuing to support Ukraine in its defence against Russia depends on whether they see it as an investment in potential success or a failure.

Formulating a precise notion of victory in Ukraine is thus of sheer practical importance and will provide decision-makers with clear guidelines for their actions. This paper is therefore not only an analytical exercise but also a contribution to the ongoing political debate around ending the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it does so by putting forward specific, attainable conditions for Ukraine’s victory.

CONCEIVING A UKRAINIAN VICTORY

Political objective: To preserve strong, secure, and independent Ukrainian statehood on as much territory of the country as possible while also preparing a framework for future reunification of the country. To uphold the fundamental principles of the European security architecture and pave the way for lasting peace in Europe.

Military objective: To enforce a ceasefire without Ukraine having to make political concessions that would infringe on its sovereignty.

Conditions enabling Ukrainian victory:

• Political self-determination – Ukraine preserves its sovereign, legitimate government; secures popular acceptance for war outcomes;
• Military deterrence – Ukraine deters Russia from restarting the war or engaging in disruptive behaviour to destabilise the country;
• Economic reconstruction – Ukraine rebuilds its economy to the point where it can function without international assistance;
• Social justice – Ukraine reintegrates its post-war society;
• Informational control – Ukraine protects its information sphere from Russian interference through a post-war settlement; and,
• Diplomatic respect – the international community maintains a non-recognition policy on Russia-occupied territories; upholds sanctions on Russia until its full withdrawal from Ukraine.