What is the message of the vote for Zelensky?
Zelensky’s win, achieved by the widest margin of votes in the history of Ukrainian elections, is a vote of no confidence in the Ukrainian political class, which has turned out to be unable to carry out the systemic modernisation of the state. Poroshenko, an oligarch, a one-time billionaire (USD), and a long-time politician, was seen by the voters as the personification of the elite and a symbol of disappointed hopes. The results of the vote prove that Ukrainians expect new faces in politics and are ready to entrust the top positions in the state administration to persons without prior political experience, which will probably give an impetus to the creation of new political forces and social movements, gathering mostly people who have not been involved in national politics so far, with a view to run in the parliamentary elections in October.
What is Zelensky’s political background?
Zelensky only has a germ of a political background. His party, Servant of the People, is only now building its structures, but according to the polls, it may already count on 25% support and will thus likely have a large faction in the next parliament. His closest surrounding consists of his friends and associates from show business, as well as people associated with oligarch Ihor Kolomoysky, with whom Zelensky has had a close business relationship. The new president has probably consulted his political plans with Kolomoysky, yet the degree of his dependence on the oligarch remains unclear. The expert community cooperating with Zelensky, meanwhile, has been mainly representative. It remains to be seen which of the interest groups will win the struggle for influence in the new presidential administration.
What are Zelensky’s first challenges in Ukraine’s politics?
In the beginning, the new president will have to cooperate with the current government and the parliament, which will likely block his initiatives. It is unclear whether there will be a split in the ruling coalition with a view to forming a new majority favourable to the new president. Experts are also in disagreement if it would be lawful for Zelensky to dissolve parliament and speed up elections, so taking that step could prompt a political crisis. At the same time, the president will be under immense public pressure, as his victory has greatly exacerbated expectations—according to the polls, almost half of Ukrainians would like to see positive results of the new presidency as soon as in the next six months. Yet, most of these expectations, especially in the social sphere, require competences that lay beyond the head of state.
What changes await Ukraine’s foreign policy?
During the election campaign, there was no foreign policy expert on Zelensky’s staff and the candidate only spoke sporadically about this topic. When he did, he made the case for further cooperation with the EU, NATO, and the IMF, as well as signalled openness to more active dialogue with Russia that should lead to a lasting ceasefire in Donbas. Zelensky’s meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron was meant to demonstrate his intention of continuing Ukrainian policy under Poroshenko. It is rather unlikely that the new president will make a significant change in Ukraine’s foreign policy course since this would raise the threat of mass public protests, but it will probably become less predictable and also more pragmatic, similar to the transactional approach of the Trump administration.
What does Zelensky’s victory mean for Ukraine’s negotiations with Russia?
It will not bring a quick end to the Russia-Ukraine war since this would require the political will of the Russian authorities to withdraw troops from Ukrainian territory. However, an intensification of the international negotiations regarding the situation in Donbas will be possible, in part because Russia wants to take advantage of the new president’s lack of political experience and force him into concessions, such as approval for granting autonomy to the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. A recently announced Russian embargo on the export of oil and petroleum products to Ukraine should be seen as an element of pressure in this regard, with the promise of cheap gas supplies and the inflow of Russian investment—made by Viktor Medvedchuk—as inducements to bilateral Zelensky-Putin talks.
What is Poroshenko’s likely political future?
The outgoing president will maintain a strong position on the Ukrainian political scene. Owing to the presence of his own faction in parliament—still the biggest one unless it splits—Poroshenko will be able to effectively control, block or delay the implementation of Zelensky’s political plans. Simultaneously, Poroshenko will devote the next months to preparations for the October parliamentary elections, when he will probably run as the leader of his Solidarity party (which may change its name by then). A good result then would allow him to influence the creation of the new ruling coalition and possibly even secure the prime minister’s post, or ensure himself the position of opposition leader. Poroshenko’s participation in the next presidential elections also cannot be excluded.
