Why did the meeting take place now?
What prompted the North Korean leader to meet with the Russian president was the ongoing stalemate in the negotiations with the U.S. after the Hanoi summit. The signals that Kim Jong-un may visit Russia appeared in 2015. The matter returned last year in connection with a diplomatic initiative of North Korea. In May last year, during his visit in Pyongyang, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, invited Kim, on behalf of President Putin, to make an official visit to the Russian Federation. For months, North Korea ignored the attempts by Russian diplomacy, focusing on, from North Korea’s point of view, more important meetings with the leaders of China, South Korea, and the U.S.
What is Russia’s position on North Korean denuclearisation?
The denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula was the main topic of the talks between Putin and Kim. The Russian president stressed that the negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear disarmament must take into account the provision of broader security guarantees to the North, not limited to U.S. pledges. Thus, he pointed to the need to include other countries in attempts to solve the nuclear problem. Russia prefers the formula of six-party talks and insists resolution of the crisis cannot be based only on pressure policy (objection to the U.S.) but should be developed with respect for international law. These declarations do not seem credible given, for example, Russia’s violation of the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 on respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, which abandoned its nuclear arsenal to Russia and joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
What has North Korea achieved?
Russia’s position on denuclearisation is broadly in line with North Korea’s approach. Kim’s meeting with Putin also reinforced the voice that North Korea is not isolated internationally and has the potential to manoeuvre in foreign policy. However, the North has limited benefits from cooperation with Russia, which cannot challenge the UN sanctions, because it voted for them. It is possible, however, that North Korea has received assurances that Russia will selectively implement the sanctions for fear of internal destabilisation in North Korea. They mainly concern the sale of Russian oil and permits for the residence of North Korean workers (currently there are about 10,000 in Russia) who, according to United Nations Security Council resolution 2397, should be expelled by the end of this year.
What are the limitations of Russian influence on the Korean Peninsula?
The intention of the hosts at the summit in Vladivostok was to emphasize that Russia is a country whose voice must be considered when seeking solutions to the crisis on the Peninsula. Hence, the call for the resumption of six-party talks. However, the prospects of returning to this format are dim, as neither the North nor the U.S. is interested in them. The interest in infrastructure cooperation (gas pipeline, railways) between Russia and both Korean states, useful in implementing the plans for the economic development of the Russian Far East, is more a sign of the ambition, not the real capabilities of the project. The current sanctions imposed on North Korea makes progress on this matter impossible. The weakness of Russia in its policy towards the North is also its negligible economic contacts—trade last year amounted to just $34 million (for comparison, Chinese-North Korean trade was $2.45 billion).
What impact might this summit have on the U.S.-North Korea negotiations?
In Putin’s words, Kim wanted the president of the Russian Federation to forward the details of their talks to President Donald Trump. However, given the U.S.-Russia tensions now, Russia should not be expected to play the role of an intermediary in the U.S.-North Korea talks. The Russian position on denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula will be used by North Korea in the negotiations with the U.S. In using the Russian support, North Korea will exert pressure on the U.S. to change its position primarily with regard to sanctions. North Korea particularly wants Russia to renew, together with China, attempts to mitigate sanctions in the UN Security Council. This will not necessarily result in a change in the U.S. position.
