The “Belt and Road” forum will take place on 14–15 May in Beijing. Twenty-nine world leaders will attend, including Poland Prime Minister Beata Szydło. China has focused enormous attention on this event.

Why does China need “Belt and Road”?

The initiative is PRC Chairman Xi Jinping’s idea for how to cement superpower status for China. The country’s authorities are aware that it is impossible without partners. The economic dimension includes finding markets for overcapacity and opposition to protectionism. “Belt and Road” is one of the main tools of Chinese foreign policy right now. It includes all forms of bilateral and multilateral cooperation—economic, political, cultural, people-to-people—to strengthen cooperation with a host of collaborators and closely “bind” them to the PRC. China shapes itself as a global political initiatives coordinator and underscores the mutual benefits for participants.

What is the purpose of the “Belt and Road” Forum?

This high-level multilateral summit contributes to the legitimization of the PRC’s initiative. Xi’s meetings with foreign leaders, joint statements, and agreements (in infrastructure, energy, trade and investment) demonstrate the PRC’s coordinating role. Equally important is the political context in which the forum should strengthen Xi’s position before the autumn Chinese Communist Party Congress, where he will receive a renewed mandate as chairman. The forum is also intended to refute opinions critical of the initiative. China does not like comparisons to the Marshall Plan, instead claiming that “Belt and Road” is not politically motivated. The forum also proclaims the Chinese to be supporters and promoters of globalisation, a stance that probably will be included in the final statement.

What are the initiative’s main problems?

The primary issue is partners’ lack of trust stemming from the vagueness of the “Belt and Road” goals and tools. Anxiety about China benefitting the most from the initiative is illustrated by the low number of delegations from Western countries at the forum. From the EU, only Member States Poland, Hungary, Spain, Greece and Czech Republic are represented at the highest level. From the G7 group, only the prime minister of Italy plans to attend. The forum is dominated by Asian leaders. The mistrust among China’s potential partners has resulted in problems with the accomplishment of specific “Belt and Road” projects. Some investments (such as those in Pakistan, Belarus, Myanmar and Indonesia) have been delayed or halted. The initiative is also wrestling with security concerns that affect project completion, such as terrorism in Pakistan and Middle Eastern countries.

How does “Belt and Road” affect Polish-Chinese relations?

The initiative constitutes the main axis of their bilateral relations since Xi’s visit to Warsaw in 2016. Both sides point to the compatibility of “Belt and Road” with the “Plan for Responsible Development” (so-called “Morawiecki Plan”). Prime Minister Szydło’s presence at the forum will be a strong signal to China in the bilateral aspect, since it is the first Polish head of government visit since 2008. The visit will also provide strong impetus for talks on Chinese investment in such areas as the Central Transportation Hub, increasing Polish exports (namely food products) or better usage of existing railway connections and construction of logistic hubs.