What contributed to the drop in support for CSU?

Although CSU remains the strongest political group in Bavaria, this election gave it the worst result since 1950. The decline in support for the party was mainly because of its approach to asylum policy. In striving to tighten it, the CSU tried to keep voters who were considering voting for the far-right AfD. However, the party’s postulates and language used by its leaders in the debate on this subject discouraged centrist voters, who decided to support the Greens instead. The lower result was also caused by crises within the grand coalition, blamed on the chairman of CSU and minister of internal affairs of the Federal Republic of Germany, Horst Seehofer.

Which parties will form a government coalition in Bavaria?

As for potential coalition partners, the most frequently mentioned are the Free Voters (FW), whose leader announced the party’s readiness to establish a joint government with the Christian Democrats. This would be FW’s greatest success since entering the Bavarian landtag in 2008. The party focuses primarily on strengthening local governments and the regional economy. If the negotiations on the creation of a joint cabinet fail, another possible coalition partner of CSU could be the Greens, with whom the Christian Democrats, however, share more programmatic differences than with the FW. Even before the elections, the CSU ruled out the possibility of co-ruling Bavaria with AfD.

What is the significance of the election result for the future of the Christian Democrats?

Although pre-election surveys predicted a worse result, the drop in support for CSU of 10.5 percentage points compared to the previous election could have serious, long-term political consequences, and not just the loss, perhaps permanently, of its independent majority in the landtag and the need to form a coalition. Equally important is the end of its special status as the dominant political force in the Free State of Bavaria. The shift of a significant part of the electorate to the Greens and AfD also puts into question the “people” character of the party as one that represents the interests of various social groups. Thus, it is possible that the party will face personnel changes and programme discussions. The election result may therefore destabilise federal cooperation with the CDU.

Will the result of the elections threaten the existence of the grand coalition and Chancellor Merkel’s position?

The parties that form the coalition government at the federal level failed. The biggest losers are the Social Democrats, who lost their status as the second political force in Bavaria. The low score will serve as an argument for SPD members who criticise the coalition with the Christian Democrats as politically unfavourable to the party and argue leaving the government. The threat to the grand coalition also exists among the Christian Democrats—CSU leaders may put the blame for the electoral result on Merkel policies. This would lead to another crisis in the Union and would weaken the Christian Democrats before the state elections in Hesse at the end of October this year. The low score in both federal states strengthens Merkel’s opponents and may accelerate changes in party leadership.