2024 United States presidential election
This November Americans will elect the 47th President of the United States. This is undoubtedly one of the most important elections of 2024, not only for American citizens themselves, but also for the most of the world. Who will sit in the White House again - Joe Biden or Kamala Harris? Follow the election campaign with the Polish Institute of International Affairs!
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U.S. Elections Could Bring a Reset in Relations with Türkiye
Turkish policymakers are hoping that if Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November that it will lead to a revival in bilateral relations. At the same time, if Kamala Harris is victorious, they are gauging that it will lead to the further marginalisation of Türkiye’s importance to the U.S. and the administration’s continued view of it as an increasingly authoritarian state.
Regardless of the outcome of the elections, Türkiye will pursue its current policy of balancing between the powers with respect to the war in Ukraine.
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What will be U.S. Policy Towards Israel and Palestine after the Elections?
The latest chapter in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is one of the most resonant foreign policy themes in the U.S. presidential election campaign. This is because of the traditionally high importance of the issue of support for Israel in U.S. domestic politics.
The Middle East crisis will be one of the main challenges for the new administration, regardless of who wins, with pressure on the parties for a ceasefire be the most likely action.
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Russia and Iran Interfering in U.S. Presidential Election
Russia and Iran are conducting social media influence operations to shape Americans’ voting attitudes in the upcoming presidential election. Russian interference poses the greatest threat. Iran’s growing activity in this area poses an additional challenge to the U.S. security services.
While Russia supports Donald Trump, Iran’s goal is to prevent his re-election.
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Ukraine Likely to Face Pressure for Peace after the U.S. Presidential Election
Regardless of the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, the goal of the new authorities will be to bring an end to the Russian aggression against Ukraine as soon as possible.
Although the administrations of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump would differ in their approaches to possible peace negotiations and potential Ukrainian concessions to Russia, both will push for increased European responsibility for supporting Ukraine.
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Democratic National Convention a Show of Unity after Switch to Harris
During the Democratic National Convention on 19-22 August 2024, Kamala Harris officially accepted her party’s nomination as candidate for U.S. president. For her running mate and vice presidential candidate, she picked Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who was formally nominated and selected.
The party unified around Harris as her rising popularity among registered voters strengthens the Democrats’ chances of beating Donald Trump in the November elections.
Germany Prepares Both for Cooperation and Challenges Ahead of U.S. Elections
The United States remains Germany’s key partner in the economy and security. German public opinion and the majority of political parties recognise that a victory for Kamala Harris will be in the interest of Germany.
Facing a return to a Republican administration, Germany will emphasise the visible increase in defence spending after 2022 and the role of German investments in the U.S. In the event of a Harris victory, they will emphasise the benefits of maintaining the status quo in mutual relations.
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Harris Picks Walz as Running Mate for Vice President
On 6 August, Kamala Harris announced that Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will be her candidate for vice president.
Walz’s political views and extensive achievements both at the federal and state levels, including in the area of social policies, will be important factors that may help convince undecided voters in key “swing” states to support Harris’ candidacy.
Harris Boosts Democrats' Chances in the U.S. Presidential Election
Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the campaign for re-election and the Democratic Party’s selection of Kamala Harris as its presidential nominee increase the chances that Donald Trump will be defeated in the November elections.
The change does not solve the political problems facing the Democrats, led by negative assessments of the economy and irregular immigration.
Republicans Unite Around Trump at Convention
At the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee (15-18 July), former President Donald Trump received the party’s nomination as its candidate for president of the United States. Trump selected J.D. Vance as his vice presidential candidate.
The convention demonstrated the unity of the Republican Party, confident of victory and with plans to bring tougher competition to states inclined to vote for Democrats.
Biden Ends Re-election Bid
On 21 July, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that he will not continue to seek re-election and has withdrawn from the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination process. He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the candidate to represent Democrats in the November elections.
Harris must consolidate the party around her candidacy and conduct an effective campaign in the face of growing support for Donald Trump, the Republican Party candidate.
Trump Picks J.D. Vance as Running Mate for Vice President
On 15 July, during the Republican Party National Convention, Donald Trump accepted his party’s nomination to run for president of the United States. He chose James David Vance as his vice-presidential candidate.
The nomination of Vance is dictated by the desire to secure votes in the Rust Belt, former manufacturing states where Vance is popular, and forecasts more decisive policy of a potential second Trump administration, especially in terms of reversing the reforms of Joe Biden’s presidency.
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Bidenomics: U.S. Economy Tops Election Campaign Issues
The Biden administration is promoting the benefits to society as a whole of the reforms, under the collective brand “Bidenomics”. Republicans, however, argue that the president’s policy has led to increased inflation, in effect worsening the material situation of Americans. Failure to convince the public of economic improvements could make it more difficult for Biden to win re-election.
Although under President Joe Biden, the economy has been improving since the pandemic and the economic consequences of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, this is not expressed by a public dealing with high product prices and costs of credit and housing, among other factors.
Trump Narrowly Escapes Assassination Attempt
On 13 July, during Donald Trump’s election rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a shooter failed in his attempt to assassinate the former president, leaving him only slightly injured. However, one rally participant was killed and two others seriously injured. The perpetrator of the attack was killed by a Secret Service sniper.
The attack on the former president will further mobilise the conservative electorate for the election, strengthening Trump’s chances of winning.
Biden-Trump Debate Raises Big Question Mark over U.S. Election
Will the first presidential debate change anything in the ongoing US campaign? Does President Biden still have a chance to make up ground despite his poor form? What are the possible scenarios for the next months of the battle for the US presidency? Read spotlight on the Biden-Trump debate by Mateusz Piotrowski.
Although Biden’s statements can be assessed as more substantive, Trump fared better in terms of image, which may be important for potential voters.
U.S. Citizens Split on Approach to Israel's War Against Hamas
The Hamas attack and the ensuing war in Gaza have affected the political and social situation in the United States. How might it affect President Biden's re-election chances? Matthew Piotrowski and Patrycja Sasnal analyze how the US government's approach to the war is perceived by Americans.
Dissatisfaction among the Arab minority, some American Jews, as well as young left-wing voters and Black Americans sympathetic to Democratic Party policies, weakens their motivation to vote for Biden in the elections. It cannot be ruled out that this will determine the outcome.
Neo-Isolationism Influencing the U.S. Presidential Campaign
Is there a growing risk that the US will adopt a policy of isolationism if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election? Is it possible for the United States to withdraw from Europe? Do isolationist tendencies only apply to the Republican party?
Regardless of the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections, the role of neo-isolationist demands in the body politic are likely to increase, which will directly affect future defence policies and strategies, along with U.S. involvement, in Europe and other regions.
Biden's State of the Union Address in an election year
On March, U.S. President Joe Biden delivered the State of the Union address before a joint Congress. This was Biden’s third such speech and one in which he used for his re-election, focusing on domestic policy achievements and threats to democracy at home and abroad. In his speech, the president tried to distinguish himself from Donald Trump, which was a clear signal of the beginning of their direct competition in the presidential campaign.
Biden’s main criticism of Trump included the latter’s efforts to reverse the outcome of the 2020 elections and the belief in the threat to democracy posed by his rival’s candidacy, which will be one of the main themes of Biden's election campaign.
Trump and Biden on Sure Path to Party Nominations
This year’s “Super Tuesday” primary elections in the U.S. strengthened the leaders in the battle for the Democratic and Republican party nominations: Joe Biden, the incumbent, and Donald Trump, who is once again seeking a second term. Underperformance in this week’s primaries in numerous states led Trump’s sole remaining challenger, Nikki Haley, to suspend her campaign.
With both candidates effectively securing the nominations as early as mid-March and the transition to a head-to-head campaign that will focus on Biden’s and Trump’s rivalry will further bind American politics and anchor political decisions in the electoral context.
What is the Probable Impact of Trump's Legal Problems on His Candidacy?
Former U.S. President Donald Trump faces charges in four criminal cases but is nonetheless the leading candidate seeking the Republican Party’s nomination ahead of the 2024 presidential election. One or more guilty verdicts in the individual cases would carry serious legal consequences—including potentially imprisonment—but will not formally prevent him from running for or even taking office.
Hoping to win election, Trump is likely to seek to drag out the cases to gain immunity.
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