The Brussels Office of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) is pleased to invite you to a roundtable discussion

The separatist projects in Somalia, Yemen, and Sudan
and the power game in the Red Sea region

___________________________

6 November 2026 (Friday)
12:30 – 14:00
PISM office at the premises of Business & Science Poland,
Rue Belliard 40, 5^th floor
_____________________________

The discussion is organised in the context of the publication of the PISM report entitled “New Flags in the Red Sea Region: Understanding the Acceleration of Separatist Projects in Somalia, Yemen and Sudan” by Jędrzej Czerep, Julia Sochacka and Michał Wojnarowicz.

As the political and security landscape in the wider Red Sea region evolves, three separatist projects have emerged as pivotal:

• In Sudan, the 'Tasis' coalition, supported by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia and their political allies, formed an alternative government in Nyala, South Darfur, in July 2025. They began establishing their own quasi-state administration in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, effectively partitioning Sudan. 
• In December 2025, Israel officially recognised Somaliland as an independent state, with its capital in Hargeisa. Somaliland’s authorities accelerated their outreach to the US government in an attempt to win recognition from Donald Trump’s administration.  This hindered the progress of Somali-Somaliland negotiations on the future of the territory.
• Also in December 2025, the Yemeni separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) took control of almost the entire territory of the former People's Democratic Republic of Yemen. In January 2026, the STC published a draft constitution for the projected State of South Arabia. However, efforts to restore independence to Yemen's southern provinces were swiftly suppressed by the central government, the Presidential Leadership Council, and Saudi Arabia. The security vacuum that resulted encouraged the Houthis to escalate.

This regional wave of separatisms resulted from a combination of internal dynamics within individual states and the projection of influence by regional actors, particularly the UAE and Israel. These countries have sought to drastically reshape the regional security status quo and expand their influence. While there is no universal model of secession, the movements and their regional backers in each of the three cases seek to normalise unilateral changes to borders, adding a new strain on international law and multilateralism. For this reason, these processes remain highly relevant to the EU.

Throughout this seminar, participants will discuss the internal and external factors that determine the rise and decline of separatist movements in the region, addressing the following questions:

What is the current strength of separatist movements and secessionist governments in the region? What role do regional parties' foreign patrons and sponsors, such as the UAE, Israel or Saudi Arabia, play in accelerating or thwarting these projects? How do other actors, such as neighbouring states, international organisations and foreign stakeholders, approach this issue? What position should the EU and the US take regarding last year's developments around the Red Sea?

Agenda:

The debate will be held under the Chatham House Rule.

To confirm attendance and for any inquiries, please reply to brusselsoffice@pism.pl by 2 November.