The Gallop of History and the Strategy of a Flank March
2/2019
09.04.2019
Toward the end of the 20th century the economic and technological success of the democratic West, based on individual freedom, placed Soviet communism, which curtailed this freedom in the name of class interests, on the defensive. This ultimately led to its ideological, moral and, in time, economic bankruptcy. The Soviet Union’s ideological defeat in its clash with the West ended the Cold War and initiated the process of disintegration of the last European empire—Russia. The triumph of democracy, human rights and individual freedom ended the post-Yalta division of Europe and—as Józef Piłsudski put it—“ripped Russia along its national seams.” Historical experience indicated that imperialism is an existential threat for Poland. The growing intensity of imperialist trends in European politics of the 18th century first led to the Polish state’s inability to decide about its own affairs and then, at the end of the century, to Poland being erased from the map of Europe by its three neighbour empires—Russia, Prussia and Austria.
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The international situation, so favorable to Poland, is beginning to change. I have already mentioned in my previous articles certain aspects of these alterations, which are due to a lack of faith in the world’s liberal order and its institutions; to a redefinition of transatlantic relations; and to the breakdown of the world’s richest countries’ parallel integration within the European Union and NATO. As a result, the international order is becoming increasingly authoritarian,[2] and the global political landscape is beginning to be shaped by three megatrends, all three unfavorable to Poland: growing rivalry between the USA and China; the revisionist policy pursued by Russia, which is reverting to a limited war doctrine; and the stopping the European integration process in connection with Brexit and the fact that the treaty changes which it requires became depended on ratification plebiscites in member countries. It is worthwhile to take a closer look at these three trends. 

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