Russia’s full‑scale war against Ukraine and its growing military and hybrid pressure on EU and NATO states have turned the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) into a central arena of European security. Its position between the Euro‑Atlantic area and Russia makes it one of the key theatres of confrontation, where the close presence of NATO and Russian forces heightens the risk of escalation. Control of the Baltic directly shapes the security of NATO’s eastern and northern flanks and determines access to the North Sea, the Arctic and the Atlantic—routes essential for allied reinforcement and maritime communication.

With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the Baltic Sea has become almost an internal NATO sea. This shift strengthens regional defence but also increases the region’s importance in Russia’s strategic planning. The security environment is further shaped by the war in Ukraine, tensions in transatlantic relations, Russia’s hybrid operations, and China’s growing activity in the Arctic and the Baltic. At the same time, the region has become a focal point for EU policies on energy, climate, infrastructure protection and resilience.

The BSR hosts critical infrastructure—shipping routes, energy networks, pipelines, LNG terminals, ports and undersea cables—making it a key area for NATO and EU resilience. Its future security will depend on Russia’s strategic trajectory, the level of US engagement in Europe, the evolution of EU defence cooperation, technological progress, and the balance between security, economic development and environmental protection.

The report examines how the BSR’s security environment has changed since 2022 across military, hybrid, energy and environmental dimensions. It evaluates NATO, EU and regional cooperation responses, analyses the role of transatlantic partners, and identifies priorities for strengthening defence capabilities, protecting critical infrastructure and enhancing resilience. It also addresses five core questions on the region’s security trajectory, the impact of NATO/EU initiatives, the role of regional and transatlantic actors, the main drivers of future security, and the most effective actions to reinforce deterrence and defence.

This comprehensive analysis is presented in (Un)safe Waters: The Baltic Sea Region and the Redefinition of Security in Europe—we I encourage you to read the full report to explore these findings and understand how the Baltic Sea is reshaping Europe’s security landscape.

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