Which states gave Trump the victory?

Trump managed to win the majority of the key “swing” states, which in recent election cycles have alternately supported Republican and Democratic candidates, giving him an overwhelming number of votes in the Electoral College (EC), the method the United States uses to elect the next president. In the current election, these states were Pennsylvania (19 EC votes), Georgia (16), Arizona (11), Michigan (15) and North Carolina (16). Trump also flipped Wisconsin (10 votes), a state in the so-called Blue Wall group of states that has traditionally supported Democratic Party candidates. According to exit polls, Trump was able to win over Latino voters, strengthened his position among rural voters, and those in the suburbs of large cities. According to polls, the most important factors determining the willingness to vote for Trump included the general economic situation in the country and the individual wellbeing of households. Foreign policy was of marginal importance to the decisions made by voters. The Republican also managed to win over a larger group of moderate supporters of the party, some of whom voted for Joe Biden back in 2020.

Who won Congress?

The Republican Party also achieved success in the congressional elections, managing to win two Senate seats in Ohio and West Virginia previously held by Democratic Party politicians. Thanks to this, Republicans have gained control of the Senate, starting in January, making it easier for the incoming president to implement his legislative proposals and speeding up the appointments of administration officials, including cabinet members, heads of agencies, and ambassadors, who must appear before the relevant committees of this chamber before a vote on whether they may assume the role. Although the counting of votes in House of Representatives races is still ongoing, exit polls indicate that the Republican majority in the assembly will likely be maintained. Even without control of the chamber (the majority is 218 seats), the Republican Party will be able to use its dominance in the Senate to advance its own legislative and political interests, despite the fact that it is the House of Representatives that has the privilege of initiating work on the federal budget, among other things.

How will the election result affect U.S. foreign policy?

Trump’s return to the White House will mean a continuation of foreign policy from his first term. The key principle will once again be a transactional approach in relations with other countries, including U.S. allies. Trump will certainly try to pressure European NATO partners to fulfil their commitments, including spending at least 2% of GDP on defence (perhaps even demanding more) and to increase their involvement in building the Alliance’s capacity to conduct independent operations. To this end, he may threaten to withdraw U.S. forces from Europe or even to leave the Alliance. At the same time, Trump will link economic relations with the U.S. alliance commitments to Europe. With such actions, the Republican administration will undermine U.S. credibility in the Indo-Pacific region as well. The main themes of Trump’s policy will be limiting China’s global economic and political position, protecting U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific, and deterring China from an invasion of Taiwan. His administration will try to implement concepts of shifting American military potential to the Western Pacific area while limiting its presence in Europe.

Trump, as in his previous term, will consistently support Israel both financially and with supplies of weapons necessary to conduct further operations against Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.

Trump’s Ukraine “peace plan”, which he says will end Russian attacks on the country, will most likely be implemented in a way that differs from what he declared during the election campaign. This may mean striving for a quick resolution of the conflict—even at the cost of weakening Ukraine—by limiting supplies of military equipment to that country.