What are the direct causes of the protests?

They were in reaction to another increase in fuel tax, especially since the authorities aim to induce drivers to replace diesel cars (70% of new cars purchased in France) with more expensive hybrid or electric models. This aroused resistance among many residents of small towns and villages, as they would be most affected by the cost of exchanging vehicles. The “Yellow Vests” mobilised into a mass movement and used social media to bring their protest to the streets. The first demonstration on 17 November gathered almost 300,000 participants throughout France.

Is this the beginning of a wider anti-government social movement?

French President Emmanuel Macron is facing the most serious crisis of his presidency, as evidenced by the protests and the support they have received from the general public (around 75%). They manifest the growing social dissatisfaction with the still-perceptible economic stagnation in France, as well as a growing dislike for Macron’s presidential style, defined by a large section of the public as particularly arrogant. The “Yellow Vests” are an example of a social movement organised horizontally, without clear leadership, completely separate from trade unions, political parties or other associations, which may indicate a repetition of such bottom-up mobilisation. However, although the slogan “Macron needs to resign!” was the one most often shouted by protestors, they offered no specific postulates and made no attempts to institutionalise the movement. It seems unlikely that a wider anti-government movement will emerge from these protests.

Who is the political beneficiary of the “Yellow Vests” demonstrations?

The protests do not have any political affiliation, which is one of the reasons for their massive scale. That is why the main opposition parties have not attempted to use the demonstrations for their own political purposes. Representatives of the party Unsubmissive France and the Republicans have even joined the protesters. However, Marine Le Pen has the greatest chance of benefiting from this political protest and she strives to sympathise with the protesters while respecting their request for politicians to avoid direct engagement. Le Pen is well aware that the protesters are her potential voters. The fact that there are a lot of people among the protesters who did not vote in previous elections or who have since switched allegiance to other parties, is an additional motivation for Le Pen to present herself as the main opposition force to Macron during the protests.

Will Macron repeal the decisions that led to the protests?

Reacting to the wave of protests, Macron gave a speech on 27 November in which he attempted to calm the situation by demonstrating his understanding of the social opposition to his reforms. He even described the protesters as “victims” of their social situation. He explained that although the rising oil barrel prices corresponded with the 70% increase in fuel prices but that this had no direct relation to the higher taxes imposed by his government. Macron does not intend to repeal the increases in the fuel excise duty because this is an important part of his climate policy, but he has announced that the fuel duty will be less dependent on global oil prices. Yet, the protests and polls, according to which as many as 82% of the French support a repeal of the increase in the fuel tax, may, force Macron to make further concessions.

Will the demonstrations affect the elections to the EP?

Prolonged protests, widely supported  by French society, will weaken the ruling camp and may cause further declines in the already low level of public support for Macron (around 20%). Polls suggest that Le Pen’s National Rally is ahead of Macron (by 21% to 19%). If this is reflected at the ballot box during the European Parliament elections, Le Pen will benefit politically from the wave of protests and Macron will lose out. This would be all the more painful for Macron, as he promotes deeper European integration both domestically and abroad, and presents himself as the victor over extreme right-wing populism in France’s 2017 presidential and parliamentary elections. This, in turn, would damage Macron’s current strategy of presenting European political forces as a fight between “progressives” (which he wishes to personify) and “nationalists.”