What does the publication of the report mean for President Trump?

The conclusion of the investigation with no new accusations strengthens Trump’s position. However, the details about the president’s attempts to intervene in the investigation, published in the report, contributed to a drop in support for him to 39% and an increase in disapproval to 57%. According to Trump, the results of the investigation not only prove that he did not cooperate with Russia and did not obstruct justice but simultaneously denigrates him because the investigators were unfavourable to him. The lack of recommendations for further legal action in the report makes it easier for Trump to speak about an unjustified political attack on him. He will use this argument both in relation to the ongoing debate about impeachment as well as to all the Democrats’ future actions while their aim is to discredit him before the 2020 election.

What are the chances the president will be impeached?

The likelihood of impeachment decreased with the subsequent disclosure of conclusions from the investigation, which cited a lack of evidence to implicate Trump in a conspiracy with Russia. The Democratic leadership looks to voters in the 2020 election to judge the matter. However, the report’s publication opens the way for Congress to look into unexplored areas of Trump’s candidacy and presidency on the matter of obstruction of justice, as well as his business activities. What is discovered could form the basis for initiating impeachment. That requires sufficient evidence for the House, controlled by the Democrats, to vote for it. When the matter moves to the Senate, where Trump’s party is in charge and impeachment charges are weighed and the accused “tried”, the standard for evidence is usually high, but it also requires bipartisan support, which is doubtful. Trump also announced that any attempts to vote on removing him from office would be taken to the Supreme Court, where he has installed two justices since taking office.

What will the Democratic Party focus on?

Most likely, the focus of the Democrats’ activity will be on the obstruction of justice topic. Representatives of the Trump administration, whose testimony made a significant contribution to the progress of the Mueller investigation, will be called for hearings before the House Judiciary Committee. The Democrats will also seek to acquire documents that may reveal improper conduct on the president’s part, with speculation about information tied to his tax returns. These actions will provide the party with material to use in the next campaign against Trump. However, focusing on a negative campaign against the president may not be enough for a Democratic candidate to win the presidency in 2020 because it may turn off some independent voters and disaffected Republicans whose votes could decide who wins.

How will the strategy of the president and the Republican Party change?

The lack of new legal action against the president and his colleagues has strengthened the Republicans and that will help them build on the foundations for the next presidential and congressional elections in 2020. The primary goal of the Republicans and the Trump administration will be to block the Democrats. The administration will try to counteract the House Judiciary Committee and the Republicans will attempt to show that an investigation launched by the FBI during the 2016 presidential campaign, ostensibly a counter-intelligence mission, was politically motivated. For this purpose, Republican senators will call to hearings former Obama administration officials who were responsible at the time for the intelligence agencies.

Does the publication of the report change the effectiveness of the administration?

Trump’s presidency is distinguished by frequent personnel changes in the administration. Many important senior positions are filled by “acting” officials, without the required Senate confirmation, including the Defence and Homeland Security departments, as well as the UN ambassador. Also, many non-Cabinet positions within departments are occupied by “acting” officials or are simply vacant. Publication of the report may contribute to further changes in the administration because some of the evidence collected by Mueller shows that a few of Trump’s associates disobeyed him or acted against his will. Subsequent personnel changes will further add to the image of uncertainty as to the direction of Trump administration policy, as well as raise doubts about the Cabinet’s composition if the president is re-elected.