Will dialogue with the DPRK return?

Moon will present a softer stance towards North Korea. Nevertheless, dialogue with the DPRK without conditions is unlikely. The main obstacles are  the more frequent DPRK military provocations, including the threat of a sixth nuclear test. Moon was a member of the administration of President Roh Moo Hyun (2003–2008), a believer in the “Sunshine Policy” towards North Korea, and took part in preparation for Roh’s meeting with Kim Jong-il in 2007 and the “six-party” talks. He is therefore inclined towards limited cooperation with North Korea and does not exclude meeting with Kim Jong-un. Early in his tenure he wants to re-start operations of the Keasong joint industrial park, which Park closed in February 2016, after a DPRK missile test.

What will change in South Korea-U.S. relations?

The alliance with the U.S. will remain the cornerstone of South Korea’s security policy. However, greater openness to the North may complicate the South’s relations with the United States. Moreover, Moon, who describes the previous Korean administration’s DPRK policy as a fiasco, accuses it of weakening South Korea’s international position and losing the initiative in its own security policy to the U.S. He also criticises rote acceptance of U.S. proposals and sidelining the will of South Koreans, citing as the best example the recently deployed THAAD anti-missile system. Moon has announced greater activities in foreign policy, including firm negotiations with the U.S. on sharing security costs. All these factors mean a more difficult dialogue with the U.S. can be expected.

What will be South Korea’s policy towards China?

There are expectations for an improvement in South Korea-China relations. For several months now they have been tense because of the THAAD deployment, which China strongly opposes. The PRC’s expression of its high dissatisfaction is indirect economic sanctions on South Korea, limiting tourism and cultural cooperation. Moon’s call for examining the THAAD decision as well as the agreement with the US can be seen as a nod to China. What is more, the South’s revised policy towards North Korea is likely to be more in line with the Chinese approach. The PRC calls for limiting the pressure on the DPRK, which may result in Kim Jong-un deciding to hold off on further provocations, and dialogue. China and South Korea simultaneously support sanctions on North Korea and warn the regime against further missile or nuclear tests.