Under what circumstances did the two votes in the House of Commons take place?

The first vote resulted from the legal requirement of the government to obtain political acceptance for the agreement before starting work on an act of parliament ratifying and implementing it. The government position preceding the vote was made difficult due to widespread criticism of the agreement from both benches, the government’s and the opposition’s, and the failed challenge to Theresa May’s Tory leadership in December. The vote was postponed from 11 December to 15 January ostensibly to obtain additional legal guarantees from the EU regarding the Irish border and to mobilise support in the Commons. The lack of results in these areas ended in the rejection of the agreement by a supermajority that included 118 Tories and 10 Unionists of 430 votes to 202. The unprecedented defeat immediately induced the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, to move a motion of no confidence in the government, which, however, was rejected the next day, but only with a narrow majority of 325 votes to 306.

What are the consequences of Parliament rejecting May’s Brexit agreement?

The vote of 15 January means there will be no ratification of the EU-UK agreement in its current form. The prime minister is obliged to present an alternative plan to the House of Commons on 21 January. It may be approved by the MPs or lead to other solutions being developed by the Commons, for example, a new referendum or a fundamental revision of the UK negotiating positions. In this context, the date of departure set in the 2018 EU Withdrawal Act on 29 March is of key importance, since it can only be changed by another statute. To this end, the government would have to submit its own bill or allow for the submission of a private member’s bill. In practice, the consent of the EU-27 Member States to postpone the date of departure would also be necessary. Without an agreement or postponement, the UK will leave the EU without an agreement (“no deal”) on 29 March.

What are the consequences of the vote of no confidence in the government?

The result came with the full mobilisation of the Tories and votes from the Democratic Unionist Party. May managed to maintain DUP support thanks to the rejection of the Brexit agreement the previous day, along with the rejection of the Irish protocol by the Democratic Unionists. May’s government is therefore now exposed to pressure from each of the party factions and the DUP. Attempts to satisfy their mutually exclusive expectations will weaken the government’s position in the event of further motions of no confidence. The result of the vote of 16 January will also strengthen the pressure within the Labour Party to declare support for a new Brexit referendum, which Corbyn so far has avoided for fear of confronting the Eurosceptic section of the Labour electorate.

What will May most likely propose on 21 January?

May intends to continue the negotiations with the EU based on the Withdrawal Agreement of 25 November. She states she still rejects both a new referendum and a deliberate no-deal exit from the EU. However, the no-deal scenario is acceptable to some of her ministers. She could build a coalition of many opposition MPs for the price of shifting her support for a permanent UK-EU customs union and the exclusion of the possibility of leaving without an agreement. Such a decision would risk losing support from about 100 of her own MPs and a permanent split in the party. Continued deadlock will strengthen the efforts of the cross-party coalition of MPs criticising Brexit and wanting to take the initiative from the government. They have been making efforts to strengthen the constitutional and legal position of the House of Commons against the government and take control of the negotiations.

Is there still a chance to conclude an EU-UK agreement on Brexit?

Yes, but the circumstances and the result of both votes have made a no-deal Brexit more likely. This is because of time pressure (only 70 days to the exit date) and the automatic nature of this scenario in the absence of changes to UK law. On the other hand, politically, rescinding Brexit means another referendum (which may require considerable time, perhaps 12 months plus legislation) while its result remains far from certain or clear. In addition, both the Conservative and Labour parties would have to take clear positions on this matter, which would be costly given the split in their respective electorates on Brexit. Hence, in the EU there is in parallel a diplomatic dialogue on the limits of concessions that could be granted the UK and contingency preparations for the no-deal scenario.