Why did Netanyahu fail to build a coalition?
Former foreign and defence minister Avigdor Lieberman turned out to be key. His party, Yisrael Beiteinu, won five seats in the newly elected Knesset. Without its participation, Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition would have had only 60 votes in the 120 seat-parliament, not enough to win a vote of confidence in the new government. The negotiations crashed on Liberman’s demands to introduce a bill on compulsory military service for the ultra-orthodox population. Netanyahu unsuccessfully tried to work out a compromise that would be acceptable to the religious parties in his coalition (a total of 16 seats), which opposed the legislation. The failure of the talks and the inability to acquire other coalition partners coincided with the constitutional deadline for forming the government.
Was it necessary to call new elections?
Constitutional law gave Netanyahu, the candidate selected by President Reuven Rivlin, to form the cabinet passed on 29 May. After this date, the president could entrust the coalition-building mandate to another MP, and in the event of another failure to form, to yet another. Netanyahu, wanting to avoid losing control over the government-formation process, chose Knesset self-dissolution (backed by a parliamentary majority), preventing the president from continuing the constitutional mode of appointing a new government. It is the first time in Israel’s political history when the non-formation of a government led to a repeat of elections, planned for 17 September.
How does this affect Israel’s political scene?
Preliminary surveys show that the majority of the Israeli parties will maintain the same number of seats they won in April. The failure in building a coalition and attempts to pass legislation protecting the PM from corruption accusations have undermined Netanyahu’s image as an effective political player, which might be used by the inner-party opposition. The goal of his Likud party will be to maximise the mobilisation of its electorate and strengthen the right-wing bloc. For the opposition, the elections will serve as a test of the durability of existing electoral alliances (Blue and White party) and an opportunity for consolidation, especially for Arab and left-wing parties. The next elections are also a second chance at success for smaller parties (e.g. Gesher) and popular politicians such as Ayelet Shaked, who did not pass the threshold in April.
What are the international implications of calling new elections?
The political crisis in Israel may delay the announcement of the U.S.-prepared peace plan. The first phase—an economic conference—is scheduled for Bahrain in June. The prospect of creating a stable Israeli government in the autumn, coinciding with intensifying presidential and Congressional election campaigns in the U.S., could serve the Trump administration as a pretext to freeze the plan. At the same time, it is likely that the U.S. will provide explicit support to boost Netanyahu, for example, in the form of another visit by President Trump to Israel. The election campaign will further aggravate relations with the Palestinians and reduce the possibility of de-escalation of current tensions, including in the Gaza Strip. It is possible that the coalition and the opposition will tighten their positions on other international issues, such as relations with European states.
