Why does May want the election now?
May wants to make good use of the Conservative Party’s polling numbers (44%, according to the latest ones). The party’s good results in recent weeks have been fuelled by the 55% of Britons who support the government’s position on Brexit. In turn, the opposition is the weakest in years. The Labour Party is polling at 23%, the pro-European Liberal Democrats at 12%, and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) at 10%. Scottish nationalists may also be weaker than in 2015. The British prime minister also expects an increase in the number of seats for Conservatives in the House of Commons, which would lead to marginalisation of Brexit hardliners (now about 60 MPs) and reduce the risk of political blackmail from opponents within her own party. May seeks a secure, stable majority in her cabinet in talks with the EU.
How will the election affect the UK position on Brexit?
The snap election will not stop Brexit. Article 50 of the EU treaty does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of notification. The outcome of the election may, however, affect the negotiating position of the government on the country’s future relations with the EU and the course of the talks. If May manages to marginalise the Brexit hardliners in parliament, she will gain more flexibility in the negotiations. That will increase the chances of a closer relationship with the Union after the UK’s departure, at least in the transition period. Agreement will be harder if Brexit hardliners strengthen their position in the election. Since notification has been given, the EU treaties will cease to apply to the UK in less than two years.
What is the EU response?
The British elections should not significantly change the Brexit timetable. The European Commission is still planning to start negotiations in June 2017. Until then, the EU is expected to define its negotiating position in an extraordinary summit that will take place on 29 April. At the end of May, the EU Council is expected to adopt negotiating directives for the Commission. If May’s electoral strategy succeeds and she weakens the influence of the Brexit hardliners, the chances of a transition agreement between the EU and the UK will increase. The EU would prefer the so-called Norway model, which strikes a balance of single market access and responsibilities. Under the guidelines of the European Parliament, the transition agreement could last for three years after the UK’s withdrawal from the EU.
What do the elections mean for Poland?
May’s decision to call the snap election introduces further uncertainty to the already uncertain process of the UK’s exit from the EU. Especially since there is a need for EU-27 unity and Member states should avoid bilateral talks with London. A transition agreement would mitigate the negative effects of Brexit in two areas relevant to Poland. The first is freedom of movement of people, which will probably be retained during the transition period, meaning the rights of Poles working in the UK would be maintained. The second is that the United Kingdom would be obliged to continue to contribute to the EU budget, so flows to Poland should not be significantly altered or interrupted during that time.
