Why did May call the early election?
In April, when May announced her decision to call for early elections, the Conservative Party enjoyed high support in the polls, estimated at over 40%, giving the Tories about 20 percentage points (p.p.) over the second-largest party, Labour. May wanted to exploit the weakness of the opposition to strengthen her party’s majority in the House of Commons and weaken the influence of political opponents in her own party. She wanted to get a stronger mandate in Brexit negotiations with the European Union. But May's gamble failed. Instead of a stronger Conservative position in parliament, it is weaker (even though the party won 318 seats, it was 13 fewer than in 2015, losing the outright majority). In turn, the Labour Party won 262 seats, its best result since 2005. The election result is considered a personal defeat for May. According to opinions polls, the British expect her to resign. May’s leadership is also in question within her own party.
Who will form the government?
Since no party has an absolute majority of seats (326 or more) in the House of Commons, it is a “hung” parliament. By winning the most seats, May has been given the first chance to form a government. If she fails, the opposition will get a chance. May has already announced she will try to create a minority government with the Democratic Unionist Party, which has 10 seats. A cooperation arrangement with the DUP likely will include support for the government on confidence motions. However, a government led by May effectively will be too weak to pass legislation through parliament without the support of other opposition parties. The deal with the Northern Ireland unionists also faces several barriers, as do May's efforts to gain wider support for her government’s proposals. Given these circumstances, there’s a decent chance of another round of early elections in the UK.
What influenced the weaker vote for the Conservative Party?
Contrary to expectations, Brexit was not the main topic of the campaign. Voters focused their attention on domestic policy, including social issues. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn performed significantly better on this point than May (after the election, 67% of Britons declared that Corbyn was better during the campaign than May). Labour’s programme offered an alternative to continued Tory spending cuts, which in recent years have affected the health and education sectors, among others. The controversial idea that home care costs would have to be reimbursed from seniors’ own estates, the so-called "dementia tax", was a clear mistake by the Tory team. In the face of harsh criticism of this idea, May was forced to backtrack, further undermining her image as a strong leader. After the terrorist attacks in Manchester and London during the campaign, May came under fire for cutting police funding when she served as Home Secretary.
How will the election result affect the Brexit talks?
The political chaos in the UK after the elections almost certainly will delay the Brexit talks with the EU and, in the worst-case scenario, make it unable to sign any Brexit deal in the two-year window, already closing. To avoid this scenario and strengthen her hand in the negotiations, May might try to cooperate with opposition parties, which could soften the government’s Brexit terms. In a post-election comment, Brexit Minister David Davis suggested that the outcome of the election may be a demand for a “soft Brexit”. This scenario would be welcomed in Brussels because the other EU members are interested in keeping close economic ties with Britain. If there are major delays in the negotiation process, a transitional agreement regulating relations between the EU and UK after Brexit is likely.
