Why did Macron win?

The leader of En Marche! drew French voters to his vision of structural reforms to help France overcome economic stagnation. Macron was running on a “strong France” in a “strong Europe” platform, promising greater activism in European politics. However, a sizeable number of the votes cast in Macron’s favour had more to do with opposition to Le Pen’s radical programme than support for Macron's vision. Some experts pointed out that a cyberattack against Macron and his party a few days before the second-round vote might have been interpreted by voters as an external attempt to interfere in France’s election process, and thus could have helped him solidify his lead in the polls.

Why did Le Pen lose and what’s next for FN?

The French are decidedly opposed to the reinstatement of the franc (70% in a recent poll). So, it’s clear they were sceptical about Le Pen's call for more economic protectionism, re-nationalisation and obstructionism of European integration. Le Pen failed to sway far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s anti-system voters, who either cast their vote for Macron or stayed home. She performed poorly during the final TV debate with Macron and, in particular, her confrontational attitude and erratic arguments ran counter to her largely successful strategy of “dédiabolisation” (de-demonizing) FN, aimed at doing away with the far-right label. Still, 10.6 million French voted for FN, successful compared to past results. Thus, Le Pen’s leadership of FN has been solidified. Her party can expect a reasonably good showing in the June parliamentary elections and she will be considered a serious contender for the presidency in 2022. 

What does the result mean for France and the parliamentary elections?

The contenders in the second round hailed from the non-mainstream (En Marche!) and anti-system (FN) movements. Macron was backed by centrists (Democratic Movement), a large part of the right (Republicans), and socialists (PS). Thus, the French political scene is in for a major change. The demise of some of the traditional parties cannot be ruled out.  A political alliance is likely to emerge around Macron in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, during which his own grouping could fare well. However, Le Pen’s impressive election result, together with a sizeable number of so-called “negative votes” cast for Macron despite his relative inexperience, may precipitate a different scenario. The French might wish to counterbalance the president by empowering a coalition of right-wing forces, ultimately leading to a government of cohabitation.

What does this mean for the EU?

Macron wants France to play an active and decisive role in the further integration of the eurozone and in security and defence policy. His victory will buoy supporters of deepening European integration. Certain initiatives have been withheld in anticipation of the results of the French election. Even under cohabitation, the president will be a decisive voice as far as French foreign and defence policies are concerned. Macron’s victory will bring about a renewal of the Franco-German partnership as the driver of change in the European Union, and a more decisive turn towards a “multi-speed” EU.

What are the consequences for Poland and Central and Eastern Europe?

Macron’s success is welcome news for both Poland and the region. Macron ran on a decisively pro-EU agenda while Le Pen is bent on destabilising the EU. Macron was openly sceptical of Russia's violations of international law and signalled his support for upholding sanctions on that country. However, Macron’s support for a “multi-speed” Europe could pose a challenge for Poland and the region. The new French president intends to level the rates of pay of posted workers to those in France. If implemented, the competitiveness of Polish companies active on the French market would decrease through rising labour costs. Cooperation with Poland also could be hindered given Macron’s criticism of the Polish authorities over the rule of law. This may jeopardise bilateral cooperation in the initial period of Macron’s presidency, but after some time, he is likely to be more pragmatic.