On 15 February, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced early parliamentary elections for 28 April—a month before municipal and European elections. He risks losing power, with polls showing that a centre-right coalition of the Peoples Party (PP), Ciudadanos, and Vox is the most likely. However, there is also the possibility of an increase in support for Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE), which would allow it to establish a majority coalition government. 

What circumstances led the prime minister to call early elections?

The rejection of the budget for 2019 by parliament on 13 February prompted Sánchez’s decision. The PP, Ciudadanos, Catalan Republican Left (ERC), and Catalan Democratic Party (PDCAT) voted against the budget. Sánchez had tried to win ERC and PDCAT support for months, negotiating with the Catalan government, which has demanded independence of the region and the release of Catalan officials arrested after the referendum in 2017, deemed illegal by the Spanish government. The centre-right opposition has called for early elections for months. The first possible date for it is 28 April. On 14 April, though, is the anniversary of the establishment of the Second Spanish Republic, which was later deposed by Gen. Francisco Franco. The anniversary is important to the leftists and separatists and will be a crucial element of the PSOE campaign.

How stable is the Spanish government?

Sánchez’s minority government, established in June 2018, depended on the support of the left-wing Unidos Podemos (UP), ERC, PDCAT, Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), and independent MPs. The prime minister declared it would govern until the end of its term in 2020. PSOE’s support has remained at around 25% since July 2017, which leads the polls but isn’t enough to allow to establish a majority. The pending exhumation of Franco’s body from the mausoleum of the victims of the civil war of 1936–1939 could help PSOE win over UP, ERC, PDCAT, and PNV voters who are afraid of the neo-Francoist Vox party participation in the government. Sánchez will try to convince the electorate that he is a defender of the Spanish republican tradition against right-wing radicalism.

How strong is the Spanish opposition?

PP’s support is 21% but decreasing. The situation is the same for Ciudadanos, which polls at 19% of voters. However, the party has huge coalition capacity because its programme combines the pro-European foreign policy vision and social liberalism of PSOE with economic liberalism and the patriotic rhetoric of the right. Since December, Vox’s support has increased from 3% to 12%. The party cooperates with PP and Ciudadanos in the regional parliament in Andalusia. Together, they also organised large demonstrations against the Sánchez government’s actions on migration, the dialogue with the separatists, and positions on the crisis in Venezuela and the status of Gibraltar in the context of Brexit. Since June, UP’s support has decreased from 18% to 15%. ERC, PDCAT, and PNV are strong in their respective regions but weak from a country-wide perspective. 

How will the parliamentary elections impact the municipal and European elections?

If the political parties’ support remains at the current level, the most likely government will be a coalition of PP, Ciudadanos, and Vox. But if the socialists win about 30% of the votes (110 seats) they can create a coalition with Ciudadanos. The parties have collaborated with each other on the regional stage. The establishment of a common government may require PSOE refrain from increasing taxes and end the dialogue with the Catalan separatists. Ciudadanos may have to give up its anti-immigrant rhetoric. The parties that take power will probably win the municipal and European elections as well, which will strengthen the new government’s position in domestic and foreign politics. The last parliamentary elections called over the rejection of the budget took place in 1996. Then, PSOE lost by 1 percentage point (p.p.) to PP, which terminated their 14 years of governance.

What changes may happen in Spanish foreign policy after the elections?

The reconciliation of the foreign policy visions of the pro-European PP and Ciudadanos and of the Eurosceptic Vox may be a challenge for a centre-right government, especially in the case of conflicts with the EU, which could happen because of the tightening of migration policy and actions against the Catalan separatists. A centre-right government may accept EU austerity policy, increase Spanish involvement in military operations in the Middle East, and use Brexit to strengthen the Spanish impact on the Gibraltar issue. A PSOE-Ciudadanos government would likely be a continuation of the current foreign policy. Both parties belong to collaborating factions in the European Parliament (PSOE is in the socialist group, Ciudadanos in the liberal one). They both also indicate that French President Emmanuel Macron would be the main partner for their government.