International Consequences of the Trump-Putin Meeting in Helsinki
What did the U.S. achieve in the talks?
In general, the talks were aimed to reducing the tension in U.S.-Russia relations. This has been an element of Trump policy because the president wants the role of a creator of international relations. However, the lack of a joint final communique indicated the scope of the differences between the U.S. and Russia. Trump used the meeting to criticise U.S. intelligence conclusions about Russian interference in the 2016 American presidential election, provoking widespread criticism of his statements back in the U.S. The parties agreed to cooperate in ensuring security in southwest Syria and to set up a working group on humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees. Although Trump and Putin both emphasized that their countries compete in the energy market, they announced cooperation in preventing sudden changes in energy prices, which was a key U.S. goal in the talks.
What has Russia gained?
The presidents declared that the meeting in Helsinki was the beginning of a new phase in bilateral negotiations. This format will be used by Russia to strengthen relations with the U.S. and its global position and role in resolving international conflicts, and ultimately may be used to divide the world into spheres of influence. The Russian side received Trump’s assurance of closer counter-terrorism and cybersecurity cooperation, which it had solicited before the meeting. Russia also will use Trump’s declarations about the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons to begin talks on extending the START treaty.
What are the likely international consequences?
The meeting did not achieve a breakthrough in relations and was limited to declarations and announcements of cooperation, but the potential for U.S. concessions to Russia may have negative consequences for transatlantic unity. Although Trump cannot lift the sanctions on Russia by himself, he can freeze the process of introducing new restrictions (over such issues as the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline), which will have a significant impact on Russian policy towards the EU and Ukraine. The U.S. may want to use Russia to enforce concessions in bilateral trade with China and to limit Iran’s influence on security in the Middle East. The U.S. will also seek to include Russia in the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula by cooperating within the UN on sanctions on North Korea.
What does the meeting mean for NATO’s Eastern Flank and Poland’s security?
President Trump did not announce any decisions regarding a reduction of the U.S. military presence in Poland or American involvement in exercises carried out on NATO’s Eastern Flank. He also did not signal any changes in the decision to build elements of the anti-missile shield in Redzikowo. Therefore, taking into account resolutions from the NATO summit in Brussels regarding further strengthening the Alliance’s ability to rapidly deploy larger groups of reinforcements, it can be assessed that the Trump-Putin meeting has not adversely affected the security of the Alliance’s Eastern Flank for now.