Agenda:

24 April 2019 (Wednesday)
12:30–13:30 Welcome Lunch
13:30–13:45 Opening and Welcome Remarks Sławomir Dębski, Director, the Polish Institute of International Affairs
13:45–15:00 Session I. Upholding the 360-degree Principle: Challenges and Opportunities for Keeping NATO Relevant to All Its Members
 What will be the biggest future challenges for NATO in carrying out simultaneously its three core tasks: collective defense, crisis management and cooperative security?  How should NATO develop a future-oriented capacity to deal with both: politico-military threats posed by state actors and asymmetric/non-military challenges?  Which socio-economic and technological changes will have decisive impact on transatlantic security?  How can NATO contribute to security in the world of rising rivalries between global powers and the demise of international regimes?

 Jan Havranek, Policy Advisor, Policy Planning Unit, IS, NATO  Marek Madej, Deputy Director, Institute of International Affairs, Warsaw University Moderator: Beata Górka-Winter, Associate Professor, Warsaw University

15:00–15:15 Coffee Break
15:15–16:45 Session II. Utility and limitations of deterrence against state actors
 How credible is NATO deterrence internally (reassurance) and to its potential opponents, most notably Russia?  What are the strong and weak spots in NATO deterrence construct? Should we focus more on “software” (including political cohesion, signalling) or ‘hardware’ (capabilities and posture)?  In which direction should NATO’s deterrence posture evolve in light of nonconventional/hybrid tactics of actors like Russia?  Is it feasible for NATO to deter actions beyond the military dimension, including non-military, economic, cyber activities?

 Marek Menkiszak, Head of the Russian Department, Centre for Eastern Studies  Heinrich Brauss, Senior Associate Fellow, German Council on Foreign Relations Moderator: Andrew Budd, Head Capabilities Section, Defense Policy Directorate, International Staff, NATO

25 April 2019 (Thursday)
9:00–09:30 Welcome Coffee
9:30–10:45 Session III. Which Way Towards a Reinforced NATO’s Conventional Deterrence?
 Where has Russia’s doctrine and conventional modernisation program been heading to and what are the consequences for upholding NATO’s deterrence?  What are currently the biggest challenges to the enhancement of NATO’s reinforcement capacity in areas such as readiness, military mobility, or command and control?  In the short to mid-term, should NATO revisit the balance between reinforcements and forward presence? How significant is the time-distance gap for the credibility of deterrence?  Would NATO’s conventional deterrence capabilities be needed beyond the Eastern Flank?

 Tony Lawrence, Research Fellow, International Centre for Defense and Security, ICDS Tallinn  Justyna Gotkowska, Project Coordinator, Security and Defense in Northern Europe Program, Centre for Eastern Studies
Moderator: Dominik Jankowski, Political Advisor, Head of the Political Section, Polish Representation to NATO

10:45–11:00 Coffee Break


11:00–12:15 Session IV. The Future Integrated NATO’s Deterrence Posture: Reaching the Conventional-Nuclear Coherence

 Has the Alliance done enough to adapt and improve its nuclear posture after 2014? What challenges remain?  Are current nuclear modernisation programs in the Alliance sufficient or might NATO need additional capabilities to counter new systems, like 9M729?  Should NATO utilize nuclear weapons more for deterrence signalling?  What does coherence of deterrence mean in practice? How closely should the nuclear part be integrated with other elements of NATO’s deterrence posture?

 Anna M. Dyner, the Polish Institute of International Affairs  Paul Schulte, Honorary Professor, Institute for Conflict, Cooperation, and Security, University of Birmingham  Dave Johnson, Defense Policy Section, Defense Policy and Planning Division, International Staff, NATO Moderator: Łukasz Kulesa, the Polish Institute of International Affairs

12:15–13:00 Concluding session – where do we go from here?
 Does NATO need a new Deterrence and Defense Posture Review?  What should be NATO’s priorities in capability development in the next 10 years to strengthen deterrence?  Can political developments or technological progress change decisively the existing deterrence concepts?

 Input: Fabrice Pothier, Chief Strategy Officer at Rasmussen Global; Senior Defense Fellow IISS Moderator: Marcin Terlikowski, the Polish Institute of International Affairs

13:00–14:00 Farewell Lunch
16:00 – 17:30 Public Debate: The Future of NATO : Finishing the “Unfinished Business” of Making Europe Whole, Free and at Peace