The Interdependency of the Strategic Situation
in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Areas

with

Prof. Kishore Mahbubani

On 27 September, the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) hosted an open meeting with Prof. Kishore Mahbubani, a Singaporean diplomat, a well-known commentator on international affairs, and a distinguished fellow at the National University of Singapore. The main topic of the seminar was the interdependence of the strategic situation in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific areas.

According to Prof. Mahbubani, the greatest turn in international politics in the 21^st century is the ongoing rise of Asia, which the world is mentally preparing for. Asian states focus on socio-economic development and their policy is guided by pragmatism. PISM’s guest underlined that Asia often sees the world in a different way than Europe. From its perspective, the most important element of global politics is not the war in Ukraine, but the U.S.-China rivalry, which may accelerate in the next 10 years. This competition also creates a strategic dilemma for European countries on how to shape relations with the two powers.

He said Asian countries, including Southeast Asia, are not willing to take a side in the U.S.-China rivalry to gain economic benefits from ties with both of them. Loosening ties with China could cut them off from an integrated economic ecosystem in the region, which supports their development. The countries of East and Southeast Asia believe in the continuation of China’s strong economic growth (although not at such a high rate as over the last 30 years) and want to be part of it. As Prof. Mahbubani pointed out, the last 20 years have been very good for economic growth in Asia, and the next 30 years will be even better. At the same time, in the context of China, he said that smaller countries should take into account the effects of the rising power of larger entities and adapt to it. He pointed to ASEAN’s approach to China as an example of an effective adaptation strategy. This issue gave rise to a discussion in the context of, among others, Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine. Prof. Mahbubani described the attack on Ukraine directly as illegal.

In his opinion, relations between China, India, and ASEAN will be crucial for the development of the situation in Asia. Although India and China are very different, they will try to cooperate pragmatically for mutual benefits. At the same time, over the next decade, the U.S. will strengthen its relationship with India, which it treats as a counterweight to China. Prof. Mahbubani also stated that in the next 5-10 years there will most likely be no conflict in the Taiwan Strait because it is not conducive to China’s development plans, and the Chinese authorities are focused on “winning the war without the war”.

According to Prof. Mahbubani, the European Union has weakened its position in the international arena in recent years because it does not pursue an autonomous policy. For Europe, the key challenge in the coming decades will be the growth of Africa’s population and the development of African economies, which will affect migration issues. To increase influence in the Global South, the European Union should be more sensitive to its needs, including those related to development and climate change. The EU should be also pragmatic in its actions, Prof. Mahbubani argued, pointing out that there are no strong cooperation formats between European countries or the EU and East Asian countries, which makes closer cooperation difficult. It is in the interest of all countries to strengthen multilateralism, including the UN, which could limit the possibility of violating international law.

27 September 2023 (Wednesday)
12:00-13:30

The Polish Institute of International Affairs

1A Warecka Street, 00-950 Warsaw

Conference room, 1^st floor

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Programme

12:00–12:05   Opening remarks

• Dr. Justyna Szczudlik, Deputy Head of the Research Office, Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)

12:05–12:30   Keynote

• Prof. Kishore Mahbubani, Distinguished Fellow, Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore (NUS)

In his 33 years as a Singaporean diplomat, Kishore Mahbubani has taken on many challenging assignments, including serving in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, in 1973-74 during the war. He also served two stints as Singapore’s Ambassador to the UN (1984-1989 and 1998-2004). He held the position of Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs from 1994 to 1998. Kishore was conferred the Public Administration Medal (Gold) by the Singaporean government in 1998. He was appointed the Founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in August 2004. He has published nine books, the latest Has China Won? (March 2020) and The Asian 21st Century (January 2022). Kishore has been named several times in the list of top global thinkers by Foreign Policy and Prospect. He has held positions in several globally significant committees and was the founding chairman of the nominating committee of the Lee Kuan Yew World City Prize (2009 to 2019). In April 2019, he was the second Singaporean to be elected as an honorary international member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, which has honoured distinguished thinkers since 1780.

12:30–13:30   Discussion
 

Moderator: Dr. Justyna Szczudlik, PISM