Scenarios for Russia’s Withdrawal from the INF Treaty
30.10.2015
Russia can put on hold its formal withdrawal from
the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty until the United
States does it first or it could use another available opportunity, such
as the coming announcement of the operational readiness of the U.S.
missile defence facility in Romania. No matter when Moscow decides to do
so, it will blame Russia’s withdrawal on the U.S. and its NATO allies.
To discourage Russia from operational deployment of the missiles,
forbidden now under the treaty, the Alliance should commence
consultations on specific response options. It should also intensify its
strategic communication to make it clear that the demise of the INF
treaty would be the sole result of Russia’s actions.
Russia can put on hold its formal withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty until the United States does it first or it could use another available opportunity, such as the coming announcement of the operational readiness of the U.S. missile defence facility in Romania. No matter when Moscow decides to do so, it will blame Russia’s withdrawal on the U.S. and its NATO allies. To discourage Russia from operational deployment of the missiles, forbidden now under the treaty, the Alliance should commence consultations on specific response options. It should also intensify its strategic communication to make it clear that the demise of the INF treaty would be the sole result of Russia’s actions.