Can Venezuela’s Political Standoff End Peacefully? - Bartłomiej Znojek for The Dialogue
22 FEB 2019

Nearly a month after opposition leader Juan Guaidó assumed the role of interim president under Venezuela’s constitution, global powers are split over whether to recognize him or Nicolás Maduro, who remains in office after a flawed election last year thanks largely to the military’s support. Russia, China, Turkey and other nations continue to back Maduro, while most of Latin America, the United States, Canada and much of Europe are supporting Guaidó. Still others, such as Mexico, pledge to remain neutral. The European Union is establishing an “international contact group” to mediate the Venezuelan crisis. In what ways could mediation play out and bring a peaceful end to the standoff? How likely is wide-scale bloodshed, civil war or international military intervention to occur in the weeks ahead? What are the chances that China or Russia, each with billions of dollars invested in Venezuela, will shift allegiance and work with Guaidó? What developments could break the unity of Western nations on the matter?

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