PISM Report: Probable EU-UK Relationship after Brexit Perspectives of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland
25 MAY 2016 Report
In light of the uncertainty of the 23 June British referendum, the European Union should be prepared for the prospect of having to build anew its relations with the UK as a non-member. The ultimate model for those relations will come from a difficult negotiation process and will reflect the economic and political interests of the UK and those of the most important EU Member States: Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland (together called the B5). The arrangements preferred by the B5 will define the alliances that will be built within the EU as other, smaller Member States orient themselves to the political views and coalitions of the B5. This PISM report identifies the possible preferences of the B5 states with regard to the EU’s post-Brexit relations with the UK and points to the arrangements that seem most likely.

In light of the uncertainty of the 23 June British referendum, the European Union should be prepared for the prospect of having to build anew its relations with the UK as a non-member. The ultimate model for those relations will come from a difficult negotiation process and will reflect the economic and political interests of the UK and those of the most important  EU Member States: Germany,  France, Italy, Spain and Poland (together called the B5). The arrangements preferred by the B5 will define the alliances that will be built within the EU as other, smaller Member States orient themselves to the political views and coalitions of the B5. This PISM report identifies the possible preferences of the B5 states with regard to the EU’s post-Brexit relations with the UK and points to the arrangements that seem most likely.